Chances Are

This morning I am thinking about some of the lessons I used to do with my first graders to model the concept of probability.  An activity that always seemed to illustrate the point well was having students pull marbles out of a bag.  I would use ten marbles of different colors—red, blue, yellow, and green.  With the students watching, I would put a number of each color into a paper bag.  I might put in seven red marbles and only one of each of the others.  Or I might put in five green, four blue, and one yellow.  To show that it was not some kind of magic trick, we would count and record exactly what went into the bag.  Then, the fun part was having students take turns reaching into the bag (without looking) and predicting which color marble they would pull out.  After a number of “trials,” and with much discussion, the students would begin to draw some important conclusions.  Usually one of the first things they’d learn was that if a certain color didn’t go into the bag, there was no chance of pulling that color out.  Another thing they quickly noticed was that, just because there was more of a certain color in the bag, there was still a chance…however slim…that another color could be pulled out.  We practiced using the language “impossible,” “unlikely,” “likely,” and “certain” to describe the chances of pulling out a particular color.  I am smiling today as I consider the mixed bag of my life experiences.  When I look inside, I see a variety of things in different measure.  There is some sorrow and some joy, some insecurity and some confidence, some apathy and some passion, some utter foolishness and some wisdom, some disappointment and some hopes fulfilled.  I rejoice because, when I look closely, I can see that every situation, circumstance, and condition in my “bag”--every single one--is completely covered in God’s goodness, grace and mercy.  Sometimes the manifestation of the deepest desires of my heart seems impossible or unlikely.  However, after many trials, I can say with confidence that there is zero chance that my God will ever cease to be faithful.  And I am certain that the outcome of all my trials will be a greater manifestation of His love and favor toward me.  I’m not a betting woman, but quite frankly I like those chances.